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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 14 March 13
SHIPPERS AND CARRIERS NEED GREATER COMMUNICATION AND MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING
Press Release – Shippers and shipping lines both need to raise their game if global container supply chains are not to be habitually subject t ...
Wednesday, 13 March 13
NEWBUILDING PRICES EXHIBIT NO FALL IN PAST SIX MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that oversupply has been the key plague of the shipping markets in recent years and newbuilding ordering activity has receded subst ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
COAL MINING PRIVATIZATION IN INDIA: MUST - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - India has the one of the richest coal reserves in the world and the country should have shown significant progress and gained the pos ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.47 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 11 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,471,080 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 March 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 11 March 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.41 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 1.41percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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