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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
INDIA HAS INCREASED CUSTOMS DUTY AND COUNTERVAILING DUTY FOR POWER PLANT COAL
COALspot.com : The government of India raised basic customs duty and countervailing duty on steam coal. In the meantime government has reduced& ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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