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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 21 March 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT $ 9000 + 300K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains firm with cargoes seen to support healthy rates as per last week. The USG-Feast was at USD 25k and Black Sea-Feas ...
Wednesday, 20 March 13
NTPC TO IMPORT SEVEN MILLION TONS COAL FOR FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com : NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company has awarded&n ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
CHINA GAS PRICE REFORMS AND APAC GAS PRICING - FITCH STREET VIEW
Fitch Ratings says pricing reform in the Chinese gas sector is unlikely to materially impact gas distributors' margins, and low gas prices in the U ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL BY 4.27 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,365,561 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 March 2013, Newcast ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
SHIP PRICES COULD BE CLOSING IN TO REACH THEIR BOTTOM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the latest developments in shipping asset prices has been the reluctance from shipyards to further reduce their price expectations to higher ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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