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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 21 March 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT $ 9000 + 300K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains firm with cargoes seen to support healthy rates as per last week. The USG-Feast was at USD 25k and Black Sea-Feas ...
Wednesday, 20 March 13
NTPC TO IMPORT SEVEN MILLION TONS COAL FOR FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com : NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company has awarded&n ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
CHINA GAS PRICE REFORMS AND APAC GAS PRICING - FITCH STREET VIEW
Fitch Ratings says pricing reform in the Chinese gas sector is unlikely to materially impact gas distributors' margins, and low gas prices in the U ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL BY 4.27 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,365,561 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 March 2013, Newcast ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
SHIP PRICES COULD BE CLOSING IN TO REACH THEIR BOTTOM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the latest developments in shipping asset prices has been the reluctance from shipyards to further reduce their price expectations to higher ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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