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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 17 March 13
A WEAK WEEK FOR SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 2.11 percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
COAL FREIGHT RATES STEADY ON HIGHER DEMAND - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 5.81 pct closing at 892 points. Cape index was up ...
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as att ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SUPRAMAX : INDO - INDIA TRIP RATE IS AROUND $10,000; SOUTH CHINA $9500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Indian market is still quiet in respect of export of iron ore. WC India market has improved with a few stems out of the MEG, WC India opening ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has maintained its rising momentum, on the back of increased cargo availability. According to yesterday's figures, the industry ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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