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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 17 March 13
A WEAK WEEK FOR SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 2.11 percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
COAL FREIGHT RATES STEADY ON HIGHER DEMAND - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 5.81 pct closing at 892 points. Cape index was up ...
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as att ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SUPRAMAX : INDO - INDIA TRIP RATE IS AROUND $10,000; SOUTH CHINA $9500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Indian market is still quiet in respect of export of iron ore. WC India market has improved with a few stems out of the MEG, WC India opening ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has maintained its rising momentum, on the back of increased cargo availability. According to yesterday's figures, the industry ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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