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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 10 March 13
INDIA - INDONESIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT : FIRM TREND
COALspot.com – This week freight market was raised and remained firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 6.70 pct closed at 843 points,  ...
Sunday, 10 March 13
INDONESIA'S FORESTRY DEPARTMENT IS TO INCREASE BORROW-TO-USE PERMITS (IJIN PINJAM PAKAI) FEE SOON
COALspot.com : Indonesia to increase borrows-to-use permit fees by 33.33 percent. The government of Indonesia is planning to increase the state&rsqu ...
Friday, 08 March 13
EKO SANTOSO BUDIANTO APPOINTED AS PRESDIENT DIRECTOR OF BERAU COAL ENERGY
COALspot.com - PT Berau Coal Energy has appointed Eko Santoso Budianto as new president director, replacing Rosan Roeslani. Berau’s extraordin ...
Friday, 08 March 13
INDONESIAN HBA UP FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in March 2013.
The monthly coal reference ...
Friday, 08 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A RISING TREND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has continued its rising pattern set after China opened up again for business, following the Asian New Year Holidays. As a resul ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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