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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 25 March 13
BUNKER FUELS ARE ABOUT TO GET CLEANER, BUT AT WHAT COST? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The cost of bunkers is nowadays the driving force behind most ship owners' major decisions, with regulations bound to change in many parts of the w ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA'S COAL SWAPS FOR Q2 DELIVERY PRICE LOST 7.47 PERCENT PMT M-O-M
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 3.39 percent and CFR South China coal shipment 2.65 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
FREIGHT MARKETS CONTINUED TO FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments except for cape index which softened slightly.
The BDI was up by 4.60 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS OFFER ROOM FOR RESTRAINED OPTIMISM SAYS SHIP OWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its announcement regarding its annual performance, ship owner Frontline offered some useful insight on the future prospects of both the dry bulk ...
Saturday, 23 March 13
WORLD COAL TRADE FIRST PASSES 1 BILLION TONS IN 2012 - VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V
Press Release: Hard coal imports to Germany on the previous year's level in spite of regenerative energies. Imports for power plants at an all-time ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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