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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 29 March 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UP 0.55 % WOW; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT: UP 0.23 % WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.55 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Thursday, 28 March 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON ACQUIRING SECOND HAND TONNAGE, AS WELL AS NEW BUILDINGS IN CONVENTIONAL SEGMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), coupled with renewed optimism, at least in some parts of the wet market, have prompted many ship own ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
PTBA HAS CONCLUDED US$ 16.14 BILLION WORTH OF COAL SALES AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH PLN
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, a 32 years old Indonesian state owned coal miner has signed a coal sales and purchase agreement with PT PLN, (a state ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry recovered to their highest level for two years in the three months ended February 2013, according ...
Tuesday, 26 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.39 MMT OF COAL W/E 25 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2.396 million tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 March 2013, N ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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