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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 04 April 13
HANDY:QUIET ; PANAMAX: SLOW START; CAPESIZE: LOW ACTIVITIES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain quiet as charterers and owners waiting to see how it moves. The USG-Feast was at USD 20k and Black Sea-Feast was ...
Wednesday, 03 April 13
HBA HAS LOST US$ 1.53 PER MT IN APRIL 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $1.53 / MT in April 2013.
The monthly coal referen ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 633K MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,029,482 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 1 April 2013, Newcas ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
THE GOVERNORS TO TAKE OVER AUTHORITY OF MINING, FORESTRY AND PLANTATION CONCESSIONS
The Indonesian government is planning to transfer the authority of issuing mining, forestry and plantation concessions from municipalities and distr ...
Sunday, 31 March 13
COAL FREIGHTS ARE IN FLAT TO WEAK TREND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market after several weeks of firming up seemed to lose steam and this week all the indices were down except for handy s ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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