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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 04 April 13
HANDY:QUIET ; PANAMAX: SLOW START; CAPESIZE: LOW ACTIVITIES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain quiet as charterers and owners waiting to see how it moves. The USG-Feast was at USD 20k and Black Sea-Feast was ...
Wednesday, 03 April 13
HBA HAS LOST US$ 1.53 PER MT IN APRIL 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $1.53 / MT in April 2013.
The monthly coal referen ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 633K MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,029,482 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 1 April 2013, Newcas ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
THE GOVERNORS TO TAKE OVER AUTHORITY OF MINING, FORESTRY AND PLANTATION CONCESSIONS
The Indonesian government is planning to transfer the authority of issuing mining, forestry and plantation concessions from municipalities and distr ...
Sunday, 31 March 13
COAL FREIGHTS ARE IN FLAT TO WEAK TREND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market after several weeks of firming up seemed to lose steam and this week all the indices were down except for handy s ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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