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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 11 April 13
TNEB HAS OPENED 4.2 MILLION TONS IMPORTED COAL TENDER
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, the state run utility TANGEDCO (formerly known as TNEB), Tamil Nadu state owned electricity company has opened bids to purc ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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