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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 11 April 13
TNEB HAS OPENED 4.2 MILLION TONS IMPORTED COAL TENDER
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, the state run utility TANGEDCO (formerly known as TNEB), Tamil Nadu state owned electricity company has opened bids to purc ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
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