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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 11 April 13
TNEB HAS OPENED 4.2 MILLION TONS IMPORTED COAL TENDER
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, the state run utility TANGEDCO (formerly known as TNEB), Tamil Nadu state owned electricity company has opened bids to purc ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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