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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 April 13
SUB - BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.70 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Saturday, 13 April 13
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market firmed up this week and all sectors were up except for Supramax index.
The BDI was up by 1.62 pct closing at 8 ...
Friday, 12 April 13
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DEVELOPED NEWFOUND APPETITE FOR BULKERS DURING FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's official; more and more ship owners operating in the dry bulk market appear to have developed a newfound optimism in the market's prospects. ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
HANDY: INDO - INDIA NOW BEEN REPORTED AT APS BASIS AT USD 10K+BB 85K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain with not many cargoes seen this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacifi ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 15.96 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,545,914 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 8 April 2013, Newcas ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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