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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 April 13
SUB - BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.70 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Saturday, 13 April 13
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market firmed up this week and all sectors were up except for Supramax index.
The BDI was up by 1.62 pct closing at 8 ...
Friday, 12 April 13
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DEVELOPED NEWFOUND APPETITE FOR BULKERS DURING FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's official; more and more ship owners operating in the dry bulk market appear to have developed a newfound optimism in the market's prospects. ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
HANDY: INDO - INDIA NOW BEEN REPORTED AT APS BASIS AT USD 10K+BB 85K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain with not many cargoes seen this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacifi ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 15.96 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,545,914 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 8 April 2013, Newcas ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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