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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCED 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER' 12
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 28.1 million bcm* (+1.8% YoY) of Overburden in November 2012 while coal production was at 3.2 ...
Friday, 21 December 12
JORC CODE, 2012 EDITION NOW FINALIZED
COALspot.com - The JORC Committee has announced that, the completion of the review of the JORC Code of 2012 Edition.
The JORC Code, 2012 Ed ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
COAL CLOSING IN ON OIL AS WORLD'S TOP ENERGY SOURCE BY 2017
COALspot.com - Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’ ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger v ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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