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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
Saturday, 29 December 12
SHIPBREAKING YARDS IN INDIA DEMOLISH A TOTAL OF 527 VESSELS IN 2012, BREAKING ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
India's ship demolition experts of Star Matrix contemplated this week on the issue of why ships in the range of 1,000 and up to 6,500 liquid tons ( ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
A LOOK AT WORLD TRADE PATTERNS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
While China's leaders are likely to stick with the 2012 economic growth rate of 7.5% when they chart a course for 2013 - its weakest pace since 199 ...
Thursday, 27 December 12
INDONESIA SHIPPED 33.578* MMT COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 33.578* million tons of coal in November 2012. thi ...
Wednesday, 26 December 12
UPDATE ON EXPORT BAN ON RAW MINERALS AND ORE - RITA SUSANTO
COALspot.com - In May 2012, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (“MoEMR”) in Regulation No.7 (“Reg-7”, amended by R ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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