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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 13 December 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES AROUND $ 6000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND $ 4000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic market remained unchanged. Rates from USG to Feast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast about USD 10k. USG-Skaw-Passero rates ...
Wednesday, 12 December 12
69.23 PERCENT OF END-USERS ARE BELIEVE, COAL PRICES ARE IN UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for December’ 12 has gained US cents 31 per MT M-o- ...
Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the foll ...
Tuesday, 11 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA HAS LOADED 2,720,205 MT OF COAL W/E 10 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,720,205 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 10 December 2012, Newc ...
Sunday, 09 December 12
COAL SWAPS HAVE LOST DIRECTION DUE TO LACK OF ASIAN INTEREST
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 2.43 percent M-M but lost WoW by 0.54 percent and 0.62 ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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