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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 18 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 20.19 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 17 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,269,640 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 17 December 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 17 December 12
SHIP PRICES TO BOTTOM OUT IN 2013 SAYS GEORGE D. GOURDOMICHALIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship values especially in older tonnage, or even modern vessels with poor quality are expected to fall further during 2013, with the market as a who ...
Monday, 17 December 12
SYNERGISING WITH PIONEERS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW'S LATIN AMERICAN RAILWAYS
Press Release: Brazil being one of the largest country in South America has one of the most dynamic rail markets in the world. Rail transport in Bra ...
Sunday, 16 December 12
FREIGHT TREND SOFTENED THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week and closed at 784 points (down by 18.84 pct). The cape index had the biggest fall ...
Friday, 14 December 12
GMR GROUP OF INDIA TO IMPORT 100K MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: GMR Group of India to invite bids for 100,000 Metric Tons of imported non coking coal to be delivered during January and February 2013 ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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