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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 18 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 20.19 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 17 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,269,640 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 17 December 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 17 December 12
SHIP PRICES TO BOTTOM OUT IN 2013 SAYS GEORGE D. GOURDOMICHALIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship values especially in older tonnage, or even modern vessels with poor quality are expected to fall further during 2013, with the market as a who ...
Monday, 17 December 12
SYNERGISING WITH PIONEERS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW'S LATIN AMERICAN RAILWAYS
Press Release: Brazil being one of the largest country in South America has one of the most dynamic rail markets in the world. Rail transport in Bra ...
Sunday, 16 December 12
FREIGHT TREND SOFTENED THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week and closed at 784 points (down by 18.84 pct). The cape index had the biggest fall ...
Friday, 14 December 12
GMR GROUP OF INDIA TO IMPORT 100K MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: GMR Group of India to invite bids for 100,000 Metric Tons of imported non coking coal to be delivered during January and February 2013 ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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