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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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