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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 26 December 12
SHIP OWNERS WRAP UP NEWBUILDING DEALS PRIOR TO YEAR END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the year inches closer and closer to its end, many ship owners are looking to close deals for newbuilding vessels they have been negotiating duri ...
Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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