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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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