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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
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Showing 4441 to 4445 news of total 6871 |
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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