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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 23 September 12
INDIA IMPORTED 11.40 PERCENT MORE INDONESIAN COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 26,451,565* tons of coal in August 2012, compared to 27.88* mill ...
Saturday, 22 September 12
SOFT BUNKER PRICES KEEP INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHTS STABLE - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market overall remained buoyant with all indices up except for Panamax index. The main effect seems to be increased shipm ...
Friday, 21 September 12
SHIP BREAKING ACTIVITY REACHES NEW RECORDS, AS ALREADY 2012 LEVELS HAVE SURPASSED THE WHOLE OF 2011 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The vast oversupply of vessels, most notably in the dry bulk shipping sector, has forced ship owners to intensify their efforts towards recycling th ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
SUPRAMAX : INDO-INDIA ROUNDS WERE AROUND USD 12K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Not a bad week for Supramax tonnage, if we compare Supramax developments to the bigger size tonnage. The rates have basically remained unchan ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
DRY BULK INCHES FORWARD AFTER WEEKS OF BELOW PAR PERFORMANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has started to revive from its ashed, as the past couple of days, traders have reported an increased activity from China, result ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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