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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 16 September 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA EXPECTED TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed with most indices closing positive except for the Panamax index.
The main sentiment seems to be ...
Saturday, 15 September 12
FINANCE MINISTRY OPPOSES TAX INCENTIVE PLAN FOR COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry has turned down the idea of providing a fiscal incentive to the country’s coal mining ind ...
Friday, 14 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS TOWARDS CHINA FOR SOME POSITIVE NEWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market freight rates submerged underwater for a large part of the year, dry bulk owners are looking for some positive enhancement ...
Friday, 14 September 12
GOVT OFFERS CONDITIONAL TAX HOLIDAY TO AILING COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, acknowledging difficulties encountered by coal miners due to a p ...
Thursday, 13 September 12
PANAMAX: THE NEGATIVE TREND, POOR SENTIMENT CONTINUES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Lack of cargoes and a growing list of available ships is causing rates to slip for all Atlantic trades.
The only trade keeping somewhat s ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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