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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 19 September 12
CHURCHILL STRENGTHENS LITIGATION TEAM WITH APPOINTMENT OF NICHOLAS SMITH AS MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Churchill Mining PLC (AIM: CHL) has announced that, Mr Nicholas Smith has joined the board of the Company and has been appointed as t ...
Wednesday, 19 September 12
DRY BULK TERMINALS SINGAPORE
Press Release - Dry bulk terminals are used all around the world to handle large quantities of bulk materials, like minerals, grains, etc. In today& ...
Tuesday, 18 September 12
JORC CODE REVISION - EXPOSURE DRAFT RELEASED FOR COMMENT
COALspot.com - The Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC) has today released for public comment the exposure draft of the JORC Code (2012) ...
Monday, 17 September 12
YEAR TO DATE, BUMA PRODUCED 231.1 MILLION BCM OF OVERBURDEN
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk has removed 31.5 million bcm (+6.0 percent YoY) overburden in August 2012 totaled 31.5 million bcm ( ...
Sunday, 16 September 12
GLOBAL LOW DEMAND ; INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.345 percent W-O-W on Friday, 14 September 2012, closing but gai ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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