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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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