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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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