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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 27 September 12
MINING RE-COMMENCES AT ORPHEUS' B2 EAST KALIMANTAN COAL PROJECT
- B2 project overburden removal completed and coal exposed
- Coal getting has commenced with target production of 30,000tpm
- Orpheus to re ...
Thursday, 27 September 12
HANDY: THE PACIFIC MARKET IS GETTING WEAKER WITH UPCOMING GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Yet another week with rates softening in all trades. Especially owners with ships open Continent struggle to find employment paying decent mo ...
Thursday, 27 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES STEAM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The rise of the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the dry bulk industry’s benchmark during the course of the previous week, proved to be short-lived, as ...
Wednesday, 26 September 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY REMAINS SUBDUED ON GLOBAL MARKET UNCERTAINTY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding ordering activity has been on the down side during the past few weeks, a trend also noticeable during the course of the past few days, a ...
Sunday, 23 September 12
AN ANOTHER UNSTABLE WEEK FOR INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 1.10 percent and 0.916 percent WOW and DOD respectively ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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