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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 October 12
REALM RESOURCES RECOMMENCES DRILLING AT KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com : Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX) has announced that it has commenced work on the phase three technical programme at its Katingan Project in ...
Sunday, 07 October 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA FELL AGAIN IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price has lost US$ 0.17 per MT M-M.
The monthly coal referen ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER'13 DELIVERY GAINED 1.3 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery gained 0.098 percent and 0.164 percent W-W and D-D respectively o ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
FREIGHT MARKET IS LIKELY TO PICK AFTER THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market appeared to be seeing some increase BDI up by 14.23 pct closing at 875 points. The Cape and Panamax index also saw ...
Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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