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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 30 October 12
NEW BUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY KEEPS ON RETREATING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have refrained from placing any new orders of vessels during the course of the past few days, according to shipbroker reports. According ...
Monday, 29 October 12
US COAL EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 125 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - EIA
COALspot.com - US coal exports are expected to reach 125 million tons this year, surpassing the old record of about 113 million tons set in 1981, sa ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS (FOB ) FOR DECEMBER 2012 DELIVERY STAYED FLAT D-D
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery flat on D-D but gained 0.38 percent on W-W on Friday, 26 October 2012, ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The Cape size sector continued to remain active with iron ore movement being steady. All other sectors were down.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 26 October 12
SHIPPING MARKETS HEADING FOR DIVISION AND MULTI-TIER WILL BECOME THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It seems that something is expected to be fundamentally different in the way that the shipping markets will be operating in the future, according to ...
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Showing 4526 to 4530 news of total 6871 |
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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