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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 01 November 12
SOUTH KOREAN POWER UTILITY EWP TO PURCHASE 670,000 MT OF COAL FOR JAN - FEB 2013 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd. on behalf of Korea South-East Power Co. Ltd., Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd., Korea Midland Power Co. Lt ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
KOMIPO LOOKING FOR 440,000 MT OF 4600 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies or traders to supply of 440,000 Metric ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
CAPESIZE RATES FALL, DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It was another lackluster session yesterday in the dry bulk markets, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating by 1.63 p ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES ARE AT AROUND USD 5,000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND USD 4000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to a lack of cargoes and an increased supply of ships. Rates from the Continent to east Med were around ...
Tuesday, 30 October 12
COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE BY FIVE PERCENT IN 2013 - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) chairman Bob Kamandanu has estimated that Indonesian coal production will ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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