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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
Tuesday, 23 October 12
INDONESIA SETS DMO FOR NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared the quantity of coal to be supplied to domestic market in 2013 recently under DMO regulation. ...
Sunday, 21 October 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 25.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL YEAR TO DATE
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 33.2 million bcm* (+5.5% YoY) of Overburden in September 2012 totaled while coal produc ...
Saturday, 20 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FLAT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market continued to be quite active with quite lot of cargoes fixed for in the cape and panamax sector.
The BDI was ...
Thursday, 18 October 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA FIXED AT USD 11000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Cont to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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