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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
Tuesday, 23 October 12
INDONESIA SETS DMO FOR NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared the quantity of coal to be supplied to domestic market in 2013 recently under DMO regulation. ...
Sunday, 21 October 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 25.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL YEAR TO DATE
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 33.2 million bcm* (+5.5% YoY) of Overburden in September 2012 totaled while coal produc ...
Saturday, 20 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FLAT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market continued to be quite active with quite lot of cargoes fixed for in the cape and panamax sector.
The BDI was ...
Thursday, 18 October 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA FIXED AT USD 11000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Cont to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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