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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 06 November 12
NOVEMBER 2012 HBA $35.21 LOWER THAN A YEAR AGO
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for November’ 12 has lost US$ 4.60 per MT M-o-M.
...
Sunday, 04 November 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER' 12 DELIVERY FALLS TO $ 59.78
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery fell -1.02 percent on WoW but gained 0.08 percent on D-D on Friday, 2 ...
Saturday, 03 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week the market remained soft with all the sectors soft.
The BDI and was down by 6 pct closing at 986 points. The cape index ...
Saturday, 03 November 12
DEMOLITION IS THE KEY FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the number of new building deliveries so far in 2012 already having surpassed the total of 2011, it's more than clear that the dry bulk sector ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
INDONESIA HAS REVISED DOWN ITS 2012 DOMESTIC MARKET OBLIGATION REQUIREMENT FOR COAL
COALspot.com - Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down its 2012 domestic market obligation requirement due to lower d ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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