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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rates are expected to fluctuate at low levels around USD 4,000–11,000 per day. Panamax is expected a tad higher in the USD 3,000-8,500 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to remain on top in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, set to move sideways and less erratic, are likely to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day.
According to the report, in terms of demand, "as we are heading into Q4 our thoughts go back to the strong days during the end of last year. In spite of a recent strong return of Chinese iron ore imports, history is unlikely to repeat itself. Freight rates have been on the slide since mid-Summer and only Capes have resisted consistent erosion. The flexible workhorses in the Supramax segments are weathering the storm better than the pack, if one judges only by average TC earnings. Standing in contrast is the devastating trend in Panamax earnings which is desperately looking for a reason to return above the waterline. Cargo growth remains on track for a 4% increase for the full year, revealing once again the supply side as the most significant factor behind the freight rate declines.
During the week ending 28 September, the largest amount of tonnage for iron ore in over a year was fixed. This is surely the first positive effect of the Chinese stimulus package, but an effect that will only prove to be sustainable if local Chinese steel demand picks up. The deep dip in prices on iron ore and steel was reversed during first half of September, causing a sigh of relief through the market. The optimism returned on speculation that Chinese steel mills would hike imports in the wake of the announced stimulus programme and prospects of increased steel demand" it said.
It added that "due to weaker demand, the Chinese steel mills have been eating up stocks and hesitated to go for imports before a new price level was found. As the production costs of domestic Chinese iron ore mines is much higher than those of overseas mining companies, a lower commodity price is actually good news for seaborne imports as steel mills will then go for the higher quality imported ore. There is much talk about the weather-related impact on seaborne shipping of grains, resulting in a development where the total grain exports is seen to drop by as much as 20 million tons this season, equal to y-o-y decline of 8%. This is affecting shipping negatively, as historically, grain exports have provided a consistent growth contribution in ton-mile demand. Both volumes and quality are affected. The crops of Argentina, Australia, the US, Ukraine and Russia are the big ones that are negatively affected, whereas Canada and EU are seen to increase exports slightly. The rapid economic development in China has spurred the demand for power generation.
As a consequence, China has gone from being a solid net exporter of thermal coal to one of the biggest net importers over the span of just a few years. CRSL expects thermal coal imports to be 122.8 million tons this year – and with an increase to 137.8 million tons (12% y-o-y) for 2013, it appears to be coal rather than iron ore that will lead the dry bulk sector out of the slump. India has also experienced a high demand growth, and is expected to be the second-largest importer of thermal coal in 2013 with imports of 128.5 million tons, second only to China" BIMCO noted.
Supply-wise, BIMCO's chief shipping analyst noted that "while our projections for the fleet growth in percentage have remained somewhat steady most of the year, the flows in and out have been much stronger than foreseen at the start of the year. The hectic delivery pace has surpassed the astonishing level of 10 million DWT a month several times, whilst demolition activity has breached the 3 million DWT a month level numerous times too" he said.
The report also examined what can be deduced from this? "Probably that many shipyards are suffering under an intense lack of cash-flow. Whereas the payment structure of the contracts previously were mostly equally distributed or front-heavy from signing to delivery, the contracts that have been made more recently are likely to be back-end loaded, releasing the biggest chunk of the money to the yards closer to the completion and delivery of the ship. This could be one of many explanations that may eventually cause widespread bankruptcies amongst smaller and privately-held yards in the main shipbuilding nations. The active fleet has grown by 8.8% since the turn of the year, as 964 new ships have now been delivered into a fleet that already stood at 8,901 dry bulk carriers at the start of the year. Fortunately, the pressure of 80 million DWT of brand new capacity being poured into the market has been eased to some extent by 375 over aged vessels being demolished. Ship owners continuously apply the demolition tool generously in order to improve the bad market conditions by cutting down on the supply side. Demolition activity in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular is strong, with lots of dry bulk tonnage sold for breaking. Following the drop in demolition prices from the top in April prices have now moved sideways at a new lower level that has stuck around for some months now. 25 million DWT has now been demolished during 2012 with more to come, assuming that ship owners continue to be tempted by the recycling price level" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 October 12
IT'S STRICTLY COME CHARTERING - CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
The charter market is a bit of a dance between ship owner and charterer: one leader, one follower; one step, two steps, turn... The dance is symbiot ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: SOFT
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery lost 0.329 percent w- w but gained 0.248 percent d-d on Friday, 12 Oct ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT STEADY: PANAMAX FREIGHTS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market saw some hectic activity in the Cape and panamax sector and quite a lot of fixtures reported.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 12 October 12
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT OF PIRACY? - BIMCO
The threat of modern piracy remains serious, regardless of its seasonal variations and the fact that it is chiefly confined to the Indian Ocean, Gul ...
Friday, 12 October 12
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES OCCUR IN THE SECOND HAND VESSEL MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although 2012 has by now evolved into one of the most challenging years for global shipping industry, ship owners are scouting the second hand ship ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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