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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Friday, 12 October 12
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES OCCUR IN THE SECOND HAND VESSEL MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although 2012 has by now evolved into one of the most challenging years for global shipping industry, ship owners are scouting the second hand ship ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
SINGAPORE BASED COAL SOURCE AND SHIPPING BAGS 300K MT IMPORTED COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - India-based paper manufacturer Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited has awarded a tender for 300,000 mt of imported steam co ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
PANAMAX : SINCE LAST WEEK RATES HAS FIRMED FOR ALL TRADES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to East Med were around USD 14k and B ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY AFTER CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet staged a solid rebound after last week's holidays in China, as many would have expected. Indeed, many analysts were ...
Wednesday, 10 October 12
NEW BUILDING MARKET ON A QUIET WEEK, DUE TO ASIAN HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The newbuilding ordering activity has been more than quite during the course of the past week, as a result of holidays in both Korea and China. Acco ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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