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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rat ...
Monday, 15 October 12
IT'S STRICTLY COME CHARTERING - CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
The charter market is a bit of a dance between ship owner and charterer: one leader, one follower; one step, two steps, turn... The dance is symbiot ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: SOFT
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery lost 0.329 percent w- w but gained 0.248 percent d-d on Friday, 12 Oct ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT STEADY: PANAMAX FREIGHTS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market saw some hectic activity in the Cape and panamax sector and quite a lot of fixtures reported.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 12 October 12
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT OF PIRACY? - BIMCO
The threat of modern piracy remains serious, regardless of its seasonal variations and the fact that it is chiefly confined to the Indian Ocean, Gul ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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