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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Wednesday, 10 October 12
TAPPING OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN GLOBAL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
Press Release: Mining sector will continue to play a significant role in supporting industrial and economic development in Indonesia which is curren ...
Tuesday, 09 October 12
REALM RESOURCES RECOMMENCES DRILLING AT KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com : Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX) has announced that it has commenced work on the phase three technical programme at its Katingan Project in ...
Sunday, 07 October 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA FELL AGAIN IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price has lost US$ 0.17 per MT M-M.
The monthly coal referen ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER'13 DELIVERY GAINED 1.3 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery gained 0.098 percent and 0.164 percent W-W and D-D respectively o ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
FREIGHT MARKET IS LIKELY TO PICK AFTER THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market appeared to be seeing some increase BDI up by 14.23 pct closing at 875 points. The Cape and Panamax index also saw ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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