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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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