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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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