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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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