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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
Tuesday, 23 October 12
INDONESIA SETS DMO FOR NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared the quantity of coal to be supplied to domestic market in 2013 recently under DMO regulation. ...
Sunday, 21 October 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 25.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL YEAR TO DATE
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 33.2 million bcm* (+5.5% YoY) of Overburden in September 2012 totaled while coal produc ...
Saturday, 20 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FLAT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market continued to be quite active with quite lot of cargoes fixed for in the cape and panamax sector.
The BDI was ...
Thursday, 18 October 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA FIXED AT USD 11000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Cont to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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