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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
Tuesday, 23 October 12
INDONESIA SETS DMO FOR NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared the quantity of coal to be supplied to domestic market in 2013 recently under DMO regulation. ...
Sunday, 21 October 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 25.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL YEAR TO DATE
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 33.2 million bcm* (+5.5% YoY) of Overburden in September 2012 totaled while coal produc ...
Saturday, 20 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FLAT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market continued to be quite active with quite lot of cargoes fixed for in the cape and panamax sector.
The BDI was ...
Thursday, 18 October 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA FIXED AT USD 11000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Cont to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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