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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Friday, 12 October 12
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES OCCUR IN THE SECOND HAND VESSEL MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although 2012 has by now evolved into one of the most challenging years for global shipping industry, ship owners are scouting the second hand ship ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
SINGAPORE BASED COAL SOURCE AND SHIPPING BAGS 300K MT IMPORTED COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - India-based paper manufacturer Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited has awarded a tender for 300,000 mt of imported steam co ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
PANAMAX : SINCE LAST WEEK RATES HAS FIRMED FOR ALL TRADES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to East Med were around USD 14k and B ...
Thursday, 11 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY AFTER CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet staged a solid rebound after last week's holidays in China, as many would have expected. Indeed, many analysts were ...
Wednesday, 10 October 12
NEW BUILDING MARKET ON A QUIET WEEK, DUE TO ASIAN HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The newbuilding ordering activity has been more than quite during the course of the past week, as a result of holidays in both Korea and China. Acco ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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