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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Tuesday, 30 October 12
NEW BUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY KEEPS ON RETREATING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have refrained from placing any new orders of vessels during the course of the past few days, according to shipbroker reports. According ...
Monday, 29 October 12
US COAL EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 125 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - EIA
COALspot.com - US coal exports are expected to reach 125 million tons this year, surpassing the old record of about 113 million tons set in 1981, sa ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS (FOB ) FOR DECEMBER 2012 DELIVERY STAYED FLAT D-D
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery flat on D-D but gained 0.38 percent on W-W on Friday, 26 October 2012, ...
Sunday, 28 October 12
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The Cape size sector continued to remain active with iron ore movement being steady. All other sectors were down.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 26 October 12
SHIPPING MARKETS HEADING FOR DIVISION AND MULTI-TIER WILL BECOME THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It seems that something is expected to be fundamentally different in the way that the shipping markets will be operating in the future, according to ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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