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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Thursday, 01 November 12
SOUTH KOREAN POWER UTILITY EWP TO PURCHASE 670,000 MT OF COAL FOR JAN - FEB 2013 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd. on behalf of Korea South-East Power Co. Ltd., Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd., Korea Midland Power Co. Lt ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
KOMIPO LOOKING FOR 440,000 MT OF 4600 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies or traders to supply of 440,000 Metric ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
CAPESIZE RATES FALL, DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It was another lackluster session yesterday in the dry bulk markets, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating by 1.63 p ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES ARE AT AROUND USD 5,000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND USD 4000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains quiet due to a lack of cargoes and an increased supply of ships. Rates from the Continent to east Med were around ...
Tuesday, 30 October 12
COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE BY FIVE PERCENT IN 2013 - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
TEMPO Interactive reported that, Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) chairman Bob Kamandanu has estimated that Indonesian coal production will ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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