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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rat ...
Monday, 15 October 12
IT'S STRICTLY COME CHARTERING - CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
The charter market is a bit of a dance between ship owner and charterer: one leader, one follower; one step, two steps, turn... The dance is symbiot ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: SOFT
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery lost 0.329 percent w- w but gained 0.248 percent d-d on Friday, 12 Oct ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT STEADY: PANAMAX FREIGHTS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market saw some hectic activity in the Cape and panamax sector and quite a lot of fixtures reported.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 12 October 12
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT OF PIRACY? - BIMCO
The threat of modern piracy remains serious, regardless of its seasonal variations and the fact that it is chiefly confined to the Indian Ocean, Gul ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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