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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Tuesday, 06 November 12
NOVEMBER 2012 HBA $35.21 LOWER THAN A YEAR AGO
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for November’ 12 has lost US$ 4.60 per MT M-o-M.
...
Sunday, 04 November 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER' 12 DELIVERY FALLS TO $ 59.78
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery fell -1.02 percent on WoW but gained 0.08 percent on D-D on Friday, 2 ...
Saturday, 03 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week the market remained soft with all the sectors soft.
The BDI and was down by 6 pct closing at 986 points. The cape index ...
Saturday, 03 November 12
DEMOLITION IS THE KEY FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the number of new building deliveries so far in 2012 already having surpassed the total of 2011, it's more than clear that the dry bulk sector ...
Thursday, 01 November 12
INDONESIA HAS REVISED DOWN ITS 2012 DOMESTIC MARKET OBLIGATION REQUIREMENT FOR COAL
COALspot.com - Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down its 2012 domestic market obligation requirement due to lower d ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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