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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 22 June 12
COAL: THE BACKBONE OF MODERN ELECTRICITY - ECOAL
Coal has been described as the "forgotten fuel," perhaps because many aren't aware of the huge role it plays in powering the global econo ...
Thursday, 21 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was on the rise once again yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry’s benchmark, rising by 18 points, or 1 ...
Wednesday, 20 June 12
BDI MOVING HIGHER, PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX VESSELS STRONGER, CAPESIZE RATES NEAR TO HISTORICAL LOWS OF DECEMBER 2008 - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry market seems to follow the dynamic of the previous week with the Baltic Dry Index showing daily increases since June 8th, but is still stand ...
Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straigh ...
Sunday, 17 June 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES ARE LIKELY TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI gained some increase after continues fall for several weeks.
The BDI increased by 47 points (up by 5.36 pct) closing at 92 ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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