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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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