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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 16 June 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT SWAPS ARE UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries seems to be under pressure this week.&nbs ...
Friday, 15 June 12
CAPESIZE - THE LEVELS THAT DID FIX ARE DOWN W-O-W LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Another slow-moving market with rates hovering at same level as last week. US Gulf positions fixed USD 25,000 for trips to Cont/Passero and S ...
Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affe ...
Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, alth ...
Tuesday, 12 June 12
ITACHA RESOURCES BUYS SARANA MARINE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Itacha Resources, a joint venture between Anthoni Salim and Glenn Yusuf, announced that Itacha ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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