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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 25 June 12
RIO TINTO MAKES FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM MOZAMBIQUE
Rio Tinto has started exporting premium hard coking coal from its Benga Mine in the Moatize Basin in Mozambique. The first shipment of 34,000 tonnes ...
Sunday, 24 June 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FIRMED UP FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments gained and marked was firm in the Supramax and Handy size sector, where as the Cape and Panamax inde ...
Saturday, 23 June 12
COAL PRICES APPETITE FOR ROLLER-COASTER RIDES
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have suffered something of a roller-coaster ride in terms of prices during this week. SGX’s Indone ...
Friday, 22 June 12
PRESENT SPOT WEAKNESS IS TEMPORARY, SEASONAL AND RISE AS WINTER APPROACHES - BUMI
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk, the world’s one of the largest coal producer and Indonesia’s largest multi grade coal miner has no ...
Friday, 22 June 12
GLOBAL ACTION NEEDED ON ENERGY POVERTY - WORLD COAL
Eradicating energy poverty is possibly the biggest challenge facing the world today. Like climate change it can only be addressed with a concerted g ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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