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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 25 June 12
RIO TINTO MAKES FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM MOZAMBIQUE
Rio Tinto has started exporting premium hard coking coal from its Benga Mine in the Moatize Basin in Mozambique. The first shipment of 34,000 tonnes ...
Sunday, 24 June 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FIRMED UP FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments gained and marked was firm in the Supramax and Handy size sector, where as the Cape and Panamax inde ...
Saturday, 23 June 12
COAL PRICES APPETITE FOR ROLLER-COASTER RIDES
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have suffered something of a roller-coaster ride in terms of prices during this week. SGX’s Indone ...
Friday, 22 June 12
PRESENT SPOT WEAKNESS IS TEMPORARY, SEASONAL AND RISE AS WINTER APPROACHES - BUMI
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk, the world’s one of the largest coal producer and Indonesia’s largest multi grade coal miner has no ...
Friday, 22 June 12
GLOBAL ACTION NEEDED ON ENERGY POVERTY - WORLD COAL
Eradicating energy poverty is possibly the biggest challenge facing the world today. Like climate change it can only be addressed with a concerted g ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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