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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
Wednesday, 27 June 12
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA INTRODUCES ON-LINE SYSTEM FOR MINING PRODUCTS EXPORT APPROVAL
COALspot.com - Directorate General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia has released "Clear and Clean" certificate for another 33 coal miners ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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