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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 July 12
BUMI ACHIEVES HIGHER SELLING PRICE IN FIRST QUARTER
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), Indonesia's largest coal producer and exporter, has successfully maintained a higher sales margin, des ...
Tuesday, 03 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET INCHED FORWARD AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched forward at the beginning of the new week, prior to the US holidays regarding the celebration of the 4th of July, which is ...
Monday, 02 July 12
ORPHEUS STRENGTHENS REVENUE STREAM WITH NEW ROYALTY AGREEMENT AT THE B2 COAL PROJECT
Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) is pleased to advise that it has executed a life of mine Royalty Agreement with Indonesian mining contractor PT Debbia Mini ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
AUSTRALIAS CARBON TAX - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Climate Change
Climate change and global warming have now become buzzwords the world over. The disastrous consequences for global ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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