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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 July 12
BUMI ACHIEVES HIGHER SELLING PRICE IN FIRST QUARTER
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), Indonesia's largest coal producer and exporter, has successfully maintained a higher sales margin, des ...
Tuesday, 03 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET INCHED FORWARD AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched forward at the beginning of the new week, prior to the US holidays regarding the celebration of the 4th of July, which is ...
Monday, 02 July 12
ORPHEUS STRENGTHENS REVENUE STREAM WITH NEW ROYALTY AGREEMENT AT THE B2 COAL PROJECT
Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) is pleased to advise that it has executed a life of mine Royalty Agreement with Indonesian mining contractor PT Debbia Mini ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
AUSTRALIAS CARBON TAX - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Climate Change
Climate change and global warming have now become buzzwords the world over. The disastrous consequences for global ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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