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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 July 12
BUMI ACHIEVES HIGHER SELLING PRICE IN FIRST QUARTER
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), Indonesia's largest coal producer and exporter, has successfully maintained a higher sales margin, des ...
Tuesday, 03 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET INCHED FORWARD AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched forward at the beginning of the new week, prior to the US holidays regarding the celebration of the 4th of July, which is ...
Monday, 02 July 12
ORPHEUS STRENGTHENS REVENUE STREAM WITH NEW ROYALTY AGREEMENT AT THE B2 COAL PROJECT
Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) is pleased to advise that it has executed a life of mine Royalty Agreement with Indonesian mining contractor PT Debbia Mini ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
AUSTRALIAS CARBON TAX - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Climate Change
Climate change and global warming have now become buzzwords the world over. The disastrous consequences for global ...
Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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