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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
 In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 07 July 12
EXCESS SUPPLY & WEAK DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps for August and Q4 deliveries slipped slightly this week. SGX’s Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swap ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
BALTIC INDEX UP ON STRONG CAPE, PANAMAX RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments were firmed up with BDI up by 15.23 pct (up by 153 points) closing at 1,157 points.
The cape index also ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET NOT ABLE TO FIND SOLID GROUND SAY EXPERTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the second half of each, traditionally looking the most active one, especially in terms of newbuildings being delivered, it's highly unlikely ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
GOVT GETS READY FOR $1.8B SUIT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, several ministries and the Attorney General’s Office held a ...
Thursday, 05 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET MOVES FURTHER UP THE HILL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its growth momentum by the middle of the week, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose by an additional 40 points to 1,103 p ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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