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Monday, 02 July 12
DRY BULK DEMAND TO RISE TO 3.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2012, BUT NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES ARE
In its latest analysis on the dry bulk market fundamentals, DVB Bank said that dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximately 3.6 billion tonnes in 2012, but it just isn't enough to help offset the magnitude of the newbuilding orderbook and the pace of ship deliveries. In its research, DVB mentioned that so far this year (the fourth year of record breaking newbuilding deliveries) a total of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet.
As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In terms of slippage, in 2011 it was calculated by us at about 38%. Even with 40% delays, DVB expects to see more than 1,200 vessels added to the fleet this year. It justifies the oversupply issues by the fact with more than 2,000 different dry bulk ship owners, different strategies and circumstances exist, whether they are commercial or financial. Still, in any case 2010 saw the contracting of 1,259 vessels of 95 million dwt, while 2011 (when one would expect owners to refrain from more orders) saw the contracting of an additional 523 vessels of 38 million dwt, despite oversupply pressures already evident. Fortunately the pace of newbuilding ordering activity has contracted severely so far this year, as orders have been placed for only 68 vessels of 5 million dwt.
Much is to be decided in the demolition stage. Unfortunately, despite the record breaking numbers of tonnage removed from the market during 2011, it still represented just 3.7% of the existing fleet, according to DVB, when in 1986, which was the last peak scrapping year, demolitions represented 7% of the fleet. At the same time, in 2011 for every vessel scrapped, three new ones were added to the fleet as newbuildings. As a result for the market to balance, scrapping activity needs to at least triple from current numbers. DVB urges ship owners to scrap even if prices offered from scrapyards are lower. It said that "owners who cannot realistically survive another couple of years of low freights need to realise this and rise up to the challenge and scrap".
It added that after the negligible scrapping rates of 2007 and 2008, when the market was at its highest, 2009 saw the scrapping of 10.9 million dwt of dry bulk carriers (256 vessels were demolished). Unfortunately, the market's recovery in 2010 saw, once again, a decline in scrapping activity with just 5.3 million dwt of vessels scrapped (121 ships). Finally, in 2011 a total of 379 vessels were scrapped, removing a total of 23.2 million dwt. It was the biggest scrapping year since 1964, but again it wasn't enough for the market to balance, as an additional 97 million dwt of newbuildings were delivered. So far, during the first five months of 2012 a total of 225 vessels of 13.8 million dwt have been scrapped, which means that this year could be yet another record breaker, but it still isn't enough.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 12 July 12
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES ANNOUNCES NOTICE OF INVESTMENT DISPUTE FILED AGAINST MONGOLIAN GOVERNMENT
Press Release - SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) (“SouthGobi”) announced today that SGQ Coal Investment Pte. Ltd., a wholly ...
Wednesday, 11 July 12
HBA DROPPED SHARPLY IN JULY
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell to lowest level since September 2010 in July 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this mon ...
Wednesday, 11 July 12
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 1.26 PER TON
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia Coal decline for a second day yesterday, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps. The prices for shipments to ...
Tuesday, 10 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET RECORDS MODEST GAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ending the session up by 5 points to 1,162. Most markets were hig ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
INDONESIA-JAPAN RELATIONS TURN SOUR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, the one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, Bilateral relations between Indonesia and Japan have recently ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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