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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The pessimism in the dry market persists with the Baltic Dry Index still trying to find a steady pace of growth and average time charter earnings fo ...
Sunday, 26 February 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE FIRM FOR NEXT 2/3 WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – “There was not much change in the BDI and other indices this week except for the Panamax which was down by 11.91 pc ...
Friday, 24 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS FIRST REBOUND IN A WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was expected since mid-week, the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has managed to put a stop in a 6-day losing rally, endi ...
Thursday, 23 February 12
2.5 PANAMAX VESSELS PER AVAILABLE CARGO FOR MARCH DATES - FEARN BULK
Handy
Another depressing week for Supras in both basins. Lack of fresh business and over-supply of tonnage in the Atlantic pushed rates south. Cont ...
Wednesday, 22 February 12
RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN SPARKS SMELTER BUILDING BOOM IN INDONESIA ANTARA / THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Antara / The Jakarta Globe reported that, as the government gears up to ban all exports of unprocessed commodities, Indonesia will see 12 new ...
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Showing 4836 to 4840 news of total 6871 |
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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