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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 March 12
SOME RESOURCE TITANS NOT THRILLED WITH INDONESIAN EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, local representatives of major business associations in East Kalimantan have protested a government regulation that ...
Monday, 05 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
An air of optimism poured in the market this week for dry bulk shippers with the Baltic Dry Index recording daily gains during the end of February b ...
Sunday, 04 March 12
SE ASIA WAS FIRM FOR TRIPS TO INDIA AND CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up and generally market was firm.
The BDI was up by 7.38 pct closing at 771 po ...
Friday, 02 March 12
DJMBP HAS ANNOUNCED SECOND BATCH OF CLEAR N CLEAN CERTIFIED MINERS
COALspot.com - The Directorate general of mineral & coal of Indonesia has announced second batch of companies who have passed IUP Clear and Clea ...
Thursday, 01 March 12
BUKIT ASAM TARGETS EUROPEAN INVESTORS
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam (persero) Tbk, Indonesian state owned coal miner is planning to conduct road show in Europe next week to target at Eur ...
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Showing 4826 to 4830 news of total 6871 |
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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