We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 19 February 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LEVELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets seems to holding back this week appears the momentum which picked up last week may slow down" - Capt. Reddy of ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
INDIKA ACQUIRES MULTI TAMBANGJAYA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) announced that wholly-owned subsidiaries have signed a conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 17 February 12
COLOMBIA COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORTS JUMP IN 2011: GOVT - COLOMBIA REPORTS
Colombia Reports reported that, colombia's coal production jumped 15.4% in 2011 to 85.8 million tonnes versus the previous year while exports rose ...
Thursday, 16 February 12
GEARING UP FOR THE EMERGING OIL & GAS OPPORTUNITIES IN MYANMAR
Press Release - Myanmar Ministry of Energy and Centre for Management Technology (CMT) to Co-host MOGP (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) Summit on 28 - ...
Wednesday, 15 February 12
HBA FOR FEB 2012, CLIMBS 2.09 PERCENT AND REACHED US$ 111.58 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Indonesian coal reference price for February climbs 2.09 percent to US$111.58 per ton after losing past three months. ...
|
|
|
Showing 4846 to 4850 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
|
| |
| |
|
