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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 01 March 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA CAN FETCH CLOSE TO USD 9K DOP N.CHINA - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic Handysize market did not see any signs for recovery this week. It is still a major lack of spot cargoes and an oversupply of pro ...
Wednesday, 29 February 12
69 MINERS AGREE TO RENEGOTIATE CONTRACTS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news papaer in Indonesia reported that, as many as 60 coal contracts-of-work (PKP2B) and nine non-coal ...
Wednesday, 29 February 12
PUTTING COAL GASIFICATION TO WORK
Clifford Reese of the SSOE Group looks at practical solutions for district energy leaders who wish to implement clean coal technology.
Coal fuels ...
Monday, 27 February 12
COAL MINING PROFITS TOO HIGH, SAYS GOVT - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
Tempo Interactive reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Deputy Minister of Indonesia Widjajono Partowidagdo has criticized coal-mining compani ...
Monday, 27 February 12
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA DROPS 39.76 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 28.21* mln mt of coal in January 2012, slightly lower than its December 2011 ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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